This is a beta version of the Arizona Voter Project
The Arizona Election Survey
The Midterms
Shortly after the 2022 Midterm Elections, we administered the 2022 Arizona Election Study, a scientific survey conducted by the polling firm YouGov. The sample was constructed to mirror the population of voters who participated in the 2022 Arizona elections.
The Survey Sample
The sample consisted of 1000 likely voters in the 2022 elections in Arizona.
- 76% of the sample identified White, 2% Black, 20% Hispanic, 1% Native American, and 2% Asian.
- 53% of the sample identified as female, 47% as male.
- The average age of a respondent in the sample was 55, with a range of 18 to 87.
- 27% of the sample reported having a four-year degree, 17% a High School Degree, 2% No High School, 17% Post-Graduate, 27% some college, and 12% a two-year degree.
- 38% of the sample reported earning more than $70,000 in family income per year.
- 64% of respondents reported residing in Maricopa County, followed by Pima (18%), Pinal (5%), Mohave (3.3%) counties. While we do have respondents from nine additional counties, the sample sizes are relatively small, under 2.5%. This is to be expected, as our sample is only 1000 respondents making it difficult to sufficiently sample from counties with fewer residents.
- 33% of the sample identified as Democrat, 33% Independent, and 34% Republican.
- 35% of the sample identified as "Strongly Conservative" or "Conservative. 36% as "Moderate" and 29% as "Liberal" or "Strong Liberal."
Visualizing Vote Choice
The dashboard below displays reported voting in Arizona's Secretary of State and Governor's race, along with the race for United States Senate.
- Statistics are reported for Republicans, Democrats and Independents.
- The pie charts report average scores on a measure known as a feeling thermometer. Survey respondents indicate how positive they are towards politicians, on a scale from 0 to 100. We report average scores towards Katie Hobbs, Adrian Fontes, and Mark Kelly. We also report average scores towards Kari Lake, Mark Finchem, and Blake Masters.
Notes
Approximately 20% of Republicans reported voting for Mark Kelly or Katie Hobbs. On the other hand, fewer Democrats report selecting Republican candidates. Republicans also exhibit more favorability towards Democratic politicians in the state compared to Democrats' assessment of Republican politicians.
Evaluations of Political Leaders and Groups
The Feeling Thermometer
Vote choice is not an ideal measure of how much someone likes or dislikes a political candidate. Here we report results from a feeling thermometer, a survey tool widely used in research, which asks people to rate political candidates and groups on a scale from 0 to 100.
Arizona and National Politics
In the Arizona Election Survey, we asked respondents about a variety of partisan labels and politicians, and the results can be filtered by party identification.
Feelings towards Politicians and Groups
Our data show that Democrats typically hold negative opinions towards Republican groups and politicians. On the other hand, Republicans and Independents show more nuanced evaluations. They tend to differentiate Democratic politicians in the state from national politicians and groups, like "Joe Biden" and "Progressive Democrat."
Public Policy Preferences
On divisive issues such as abortion and gun control, majorities in both parties often agree. Most support making abortion legal at some point, and mandatory background checks with the legal age to buy firearms raised to 21. Only 20% of voters favor making abortion illegal in all circumstances. Arizonans agree that water scarcity is a serious issue in Arizona, but partisans disagree on the appropriate role of the federal government in mitigating the crisis.
We also gathered opinions on various topics and present a few key issues here, including attitudes towards divisive topics like guns and abortion.