This is a beta version of the Arizona Voter Project
Voting in Arizona
In American elections, there can be large differences in voter turnout from state to state, and even within the same state. Arizona is no exception. Arizona maintains a record of all voers in the state, known as the Arizona Voter File. The Arizona Voter File is a public record, which includes contact information and whether a registered voter votes in an election. The state records who votes, but never who one voted for. We make use of these data, by building data analytic tools for users to learn more about the state and their communities.
Electoral Districts in Arizona
Arizona is divided into thirty legislative districts and nine congressional districts. Each legislative district is represented by one senator and two representatives who serve in the state legislature. The boundaries for these districts are drawn every ten years to ensure effective representation of Arizona’s diverse neighborhoods and communities. Districts are drawn non-politically by the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission.
Who Votes?
Leveraging the Voter File to Understand Political Engagement
The Arizona Voter File contains information on registered voters' participation in both the primary and general elections. These data are utilized to create a score for each voter, representing their likelihood of participating in these primary and general elections. These scores are generated using a statistical model called a covariance structure model, which leverages each registered voter's participation history to construct a score ranging from 0 to 1, with scores nearing 1 corresponding to a high likelihood of participating in Arizona politics.
Below we present the average voting engagement scores for Republican, Democratic and Independent registrants. We also present this breakdown by age.
General and Primary Registration
By Party
- Republican registrants are somewhat more likely to participate in general and primary elections compared to Democrats and Independents.
- Independents consistently score lowest on primary and general engagement. In Arizona, the Democratic and Republican primaries are open to Independent voters.
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General and Primary Registration
By Party
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Older cohorts are more likely to participate than younger cohorts.
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Independents, particularly younger voters who are registered Independent are least engaged in primary and general elections
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Drill Down Further
The U.S. Census Bureau classifies the American population into census blocks. These are relatively small geographic areas -- generally between 600 to several thousand people -- and the Census Bureau uses census blocks to present population data. The physical size of a census block varies by population density. Census blocks in urban areas will cover fewer square miles, because more people reside in smaller area. Rural census blocks, on the other hand, cover larger areas.
All voters reside in a particular census block. So, we estimate the average amount of primary and general engagement within each census block.
- The dashboard allows one to select a congressional district and general or primary score. We do not present data on census blocks with fewer than 100 active registered voters.
- Hovering over a census block displays summary statistics.
- The color of the census block corresponds to the block's estimated engagement score.
- Demographic and registration data for the selected district are displayed at the bottom of the dashboard.